Always, maybe, never
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Overview
Using this Resource
Connecting to the Curriculum
Marking Student Responses
Working with Students
Further Resources
This task is about the chance of something happening.
Choose the best word to show how often each of the following events is likely to happen.
Task administration:
This task can be completed with pencil and paper or online with auto-marking.
Level:
1
Curriculum info:
Keywords:
Description of task:
This task is about students selecting 'always', 'maybe' or 'never' to describe the probability of a range of events happening.
Curriculum Links:
This resource can be used to help to identify students' understanding of describing the likelihoods of outcomes for a simple situation involving chance, using everyday language.
Learning Progression Frameworks
This resource can provide evidence of learning associated with within the Mathematics Learning Progressions Frameworks.
Read more about the Learning Progressions Frameworks.Answers/responses:
| Y2/3 (03/2017) | ||
| a) | never | very easy |
| b) | always | easy |
| c) | maybe | very easy |
| d) | never | very easy |
| e) | always | easy |
| f) | maybe | very easy |
Based on an online sample of 25 students
Teaching and learning:
Probability is about anticipating possible outcomes. This resource uses familiar contexts and everyday language to explore probability and the chance of a range of events occurring.
As students progress through the primary years they will gradually learn to assign fractions or decimals to given probabilities. Initially, however, it is through language that the concept of the likelihood of an event happening is explored.
Questions a) through f) involve students deciding how frequently an event is likely to occur.
Diagnostic and formative information:
| Common error | Misconception |
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b), e) maybe
d) always
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Students may not be familiar with scientific or geometric properties which make these statements always true or never true. |
Next steps:
Students can work in pairs, groups or as a class to justify their responses. Have students stand in different parts of the room or space, depending on their response, and get each group to explain why they chose their answer.
Students may not be familiar with scientific or geometric properties which make these statements always true or never true.
For example, if students are not aware that all squares have four sides, this could lead to a geometric exploration of what it is to be a square. Students can find squares in the classroom and around the school and then co-construct a definition which includes them having four sides. For further information about shape properties see the Geometric Thinking Concept Map.
Exploring night and day and calendars can help students understand that it is always dark at night (and why) and that the days of the week are immutable. Some students may argue that it is not always dark at night because it is not pitch black darkness, so some discussion around the idea of there not being sunlight at night might be needed.
ARB resources that explore the language of probability
- Is it possible? (Level 2)
- Possible events (Level 2)
Students may not understand that since ALL the marbles are blue, the only colour of marble that can be taken out of the bag is blue.
The best way to explore the probability of a particular coloured marble being pulled out of a bag is to carry out some experiments using opaque bags and counters, blocks, marbles or any other suitable material. These experiments can be recorded using tally charts and the results discussed. Predictions could be made and tested.
ARB resources that explore the likelihood of an object being drawn out of a bag
Games involving spinners, dice and coins are also great ways to explore probability further.
ARB resources that use spinners
- Spin a surprise (Level 2,3)
- Different spinners (Level 2)
NZMaths has two probability units that explore the language of probability at Level 1:
Further information about the rationale for teaching probability can be found on the nzmaths site under Statistics Information.