What's the chance of that?

What's the chance of that?

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Overview
Using this Resource
Connecting to the Curriculum
Marking Student Responses
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Further Resources
This task is about the chance of something happening.
Choose the best word to show how often each of the following events is likely to happen.

Question

bag of marbles - blue.jpg
a)  If Jake takes a marble out of the bag it will be blue.

    • always

    • maybe

    • never

Question

bag of marbles - orange and green.jpg
b)  If Vai takes a marble out of the bag it will be blue.

    • always

    • maybe

    • never

Question

bag of marbles - yellow and green.jpg
c)  If Aroha takes a marble out of the bag it will be yellow.

    • always

    • maybe

    • never

Question

 
bag of marbles - yellow and green.jpg
d)  If Alex takes a marble out of the bag it will be green.

    • always

    • maybe

    • never

Task administration: 
This task can be completed with pencil and paper or online.  If completed online, auto-marking  will be displayed to students.
Level:
1
Curriculum info: 
Maths, Statistics, Probability
Keywords: 
probability, qualitative probability
Description of task: 
This task is about students selecting 'always', 'maybe' or 'never' to describe the probability of a range of probability events happening.
Curriculum Links: 
This resource can be used to help to identify students' understanding of describing the likelihoods of outcomes for a simple situation involving chance, using everyday language.
 
Learning Progression Frameworks
This resource can provide evidence of learning associated with
Interpreting statistical and chance situations, sets 1-2
within the Mathematics Learning Progressions Frameworks.
Read more about the Learning Progressions Frameworks.
Answers/responses: 
    Y2/3 (03/2017)
a) always moderate
b) never very easy
c) maybe easy
d) maybe easy
Based on an online sample of 25 students
Teaching and learning: 
Probability is about anticipating possible outcomes. This resource uses familiar contexts and everyday language to explore probability and the chance of a range of events occurring.
As students progress through the primary years they will gradually learn to assign fractions or decimals to given probabilities.  Initially, however, it is through language that the concept of the likelihood of an event happening is explored.
 
These questions focus on the likelihood of a particular colour of marble being pulled out of a bag.
Diagnostic and formative information: 
Common error Misconception
a) maybe Students may not understand that since ALL the marbles are blue, the only colour of marble that can be taken out of the bag is blue.
Next steps: 
Students can work in pairs, groups or as a class to justify their responses.  Have students stand in different parts of the room or space, depending on their response, and get each group to explain why they chose their answer.
 
Students may not understand that since ALL the marbles are blue, the only colour of marble that can be taken out of the bag is blue.
The best way to explore the probability of a particular coloured marble being pulled out of a bag is to carry out some experiments using opaque bags and counters, blocks, marbles or any other suitable material. These experiments can be recorded using tally charts and the results discussed.  Predictions could be made and tested.
 
ARB resources that explore the likelihood of an object being drawn out of a bag
Games involving spinners, dice and coins are also great ways to explore probability further.  
 
ARB resources that use spinners
NZMaths has two probability units that explore the language of probability at Level 1:
Further information about the rationale for teaching probability can be found on the nzmaths site under Statistics Information.